Aluminum prices continue to decline, with a clear mindset of refusing to budge on prices in Jiangxi region [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]

SMM News on June 24:

Today, spot primary aluminum prices fell by 110 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM A00 spot aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/mt, and aluminum scrap market prices pulled back overall. Amid the traditional off-season, downstream scrap utilization enterprises are experiencing weak order releases, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs.

Today, the quoted prices for baled UBC aluminum scrap are concentrated in the range of 15,200-15,700 yuan/mt (tax not included), while the quoted prices for shredded aluminum tense scrap are concentrated in the range of 15,800-17,300 yuan/mt (tax not included). Regionally, areas such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong are closely linked to aluminum prices, with price adjustments ranging from 50-100 yuan/mt. Jiangxi province has shown a clear stance of refusing to budge on prices, with no price adjustments observed over three consecutive trading days. By product, baled UBC aluminum scrap has followed the downward trend of aluminum prices since last Thursday, with a cumulative decline of 150-200 yuan/mt.

In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai narrowed by 35 yuan/mt compared to last Wednesday, reaching 1,823 yuan/mt. The price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan narrowed by 112 yuan/mt compared to last Wednesday, reaching 1,486 yuan/mt.

Considering the difficulty in actual shipments, aluminum scrap suppliers have adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards price adjustments amid the high-level fluctuations of aluminum prices. This week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to continue the pattern of "high-level fluctuations and product differentiation," remaining generally strong. Due to persistent supply shortages, aluminum tense scrap prices have shown significant resilience, with shredded aluminum tense scrap (tax not included) fluctuating within the range of 15,800-17,400 yuan/mt, with relatively limited declines. Baled UBC aluminum scrap is expected to experience a mild pullback to 15,200-15,600 yuan/mt (tax not included), with a potential weekly decline of 100-150 yuan/mt. Regional price differentials will further widen: East China (Shanghai, Shandong) may experience daily price adjustments of up to 200 yuan/mt due to the linkage with primary aluminum prices and policy disruptions, leading to significant volatility. Inland provinces (Jiangxi, Hubei, etc.) may lack the momentum to follow price increases due to supply-demand differentiation and delayed price adjustments, potentially leading to a further expansion of price differentials.

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